@clacke the reason I don't care for the analogy is not the analogy itself i'm thinking, it's that it's often used to hand-wave away the requisite hard work. I understand perfectly that hard work doesn't equal success but it's a prerequisite to it 99+% of the time.

in my own life it was an observation that some people just seemed to be lucky but i looked closer and the people that got lucky were people that 1. showed up and 2. kept trying consistently. also maybe 3. didn't fuck it up and were able to keep the ball rolling.