Chris Trottier
Meta is dead -- and it's time to bury it π β°οΈ
You might ask, "How can this be? Meta still makes billions!"
Nonetheless, it's dead and I have research to back that up! Read on for my post-mortem. 𧡠https://blog.peerverse.space/facebook-a-post-mortem/
Chris Trottier
I'm not randomly saying Meta is dead. Here's some cold, hard facts:
1. Facebook is losing daily users
2. Teenage usage is set to decline by 45%
3. They missed their last earnings estimate by $0.17
4. Their YTD stock price is down -36.08% (for comparison, the S&P is -6.17%)
5. The market expects earnings to fall β again
These are not good trends and spell doom for Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. But there's still more...
Alex@rtnVFRmedia Suffolk UK
@atomicpoet in UK and some other European countries, Facebook has blocked all access to "public" sites without an FB login, making them useless for any small businesses and community groups to attract attention from non FB users
(who have been increasingly using them instead of independent websites)
Chris Trottier
First, what do I mean by dead? I mean Meta is dead in the same way MySpace is dead: it's cultural relevance is gone. And where cultural relevance goes, so does a social network. There's no recovering from that. It's dead.
Chris Trottier
In summary, Meta is dead because:
1. Userbase is contracting
2. Employees are whistleblowing
3. Governments are regulating
4. Share price is cratering
5. Innovation ain't happening
Biggest reason: its surveillance model is now dead.
Chris Trottier
Not only is Apple inflicting damage on Meta, so is Google. Just as with iOS, Google is making privacy changes to Android. How many more billions is Meta going to lose? https://www.businessinsider.com/google-privacy-changes-ad-tracking-android-facebook-iphone-2022-2
Chris Trottier
The killing blow is governments challenging Meta. Due to new privacy rules in the EU, Facebook may be shuttered across Europe. Hundreds of millions of accounts may soon be useless. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/02/meta-may-be-forced-to-shutter-facebook-instagram-in-eu/
Chris Trottier
Meta's entire business model depends on tracking and surveillance of its users. If it can't do this, it no longer has a reason to exist. Surveillance capitalism is Meta's entire reason to exist.
Chris Trottier
Apple recently changed privacy settings on its iOS platform. With that, Facebook is losing out on $10 billion of revenue this year. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/02/facebook-says-apple-ios-privacy-change-will-cost-10-billion-this-year.html
Chris Trottier
If Meta could survive revenue contraction long enough, maybe the metaverse is a decent "Hail Mary" prediction.
Problem: a judge just ruled that Meta's plans now require shareholder approval. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-07/meta-loses-bid-to-quash-vote-on-the-future-of-metaverse
Chris Trottier
Thus far, I've only pointed out symptoms of Meta's death. But now let me explain why Meta is deader than a corpse -- and we should bury it.
Chris Trottier
(Sidenote: NFTs are controversial, but with Meta demanding a 47.5% cut, even the biggest detractors of NFTs would admit they're a better option than Meta.)
Chris Trottier
Obviously, bean counters at Meta know the trends are looking bad. This is why they're pivoting to the metaverse (hence the name from Facebook). But the metaverse probably won't go mainstream soon. https://nypost.com/2022/01/08/experts-predict-living-in-the-metaverse-by-2030/
Chris Trottier
Meta's own behaviour towards the metaverse reeks of desperation. They're demanding a 47.5% cut from sales of digital assets. Problem? Sellers on the metaverse have options, including NFTs. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-parent-meta-set-to-take-nearly-50-cut-from-virtual-sales-within-its-metaverse-11649885375?siteid=yhoof2
Chris Trottier
Meta doesn't motivate talent to build amazing new things.
Instead, they motivate talent to become whistleblowers. https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/04/tech/facebook-whistleblower-frances-haugen-what-we-know/index.html
Chris Trottier
Why doesn't Meta just copy the competition and grow that way? They have. Reels is supposed to do what TikTok does. Yet they're still losing. https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2022/02/04/facebook-meta-growth-zuckerberg-reels-tiktok-videos-creators-pay/?sh=7d5954d44008
Chris Trottier
What if a rock star employee developed a new killer app, thus saving Meta's future?
Not with company morale the way it is. Nobody wants to work there. If a coder wants to build something, they won't stay at Meta. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-01-13/meta-is-immune-to-scandal-except-when-it-comes-to-employee-morale
Chris Trottier
Okay, so if all three of Meta's platform's are in trouble, why don't they just acquire another growing platform? That's not easy when the FTC is breathing down your neck. https://uploadvr.com/meta-supernatural-acquisition-ftc-probe/
Chris Trottier
Speaking of the FTC, Meta has an active antitrust suit that will take years to resolve -- so their growth options are extremely limited. https://www.techtarget.com/searchcio/news/252515715/Long-costly-road-ahead-for-FTC-antitrust-case-against-Meta
Chris Trottier
Instagram is still popular with Millennials. But you know who they're not popular with? Gen Z. TikTok has crept up and overtaken Instagram as the haven for young people. Where young people go, so does the Internet. https://studybreaks.com/tvfilm/instagram-and-gen-z/
Chris Trottier
That leads us to WhatsApp. Yes, it's still the top dog, but signs aren't good when Brian Acton, the founder of WhatsApps releases a competing product and it immediately experiences hockey stick growth.
Chris Trottier
For all intents and purposes, Facebook (i.e., "the blue app") has become the Internet's retirement home. Young people are staying away. Facebook? More like Boomberbook. https://www.business.com/articles/facebooks-user-base-is-getting-older-what-does-this-mean-for-marketers/
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