Context: The Dunning-Kruger effect may in fact not be real; It looks like the convincing graphs in the original work are actually a statistical artifact.
A greater study shows that people have a normal curve of under- or overestimating their ability.
The only thing real in the original paper may be that Cornell University undergraduates across the board overestimate their skills, on average.
> This means that "you see DK all the time in real life"... isn't actually evidence that DK is a real cognitive bias. You're much more likely to remember the overconfident idiots you meet than the humble ones.
The real cognitive bias was the selective perception of a cognitive bias in the incompetent friends we made along the way.
Further down the rabbit hole, other truths about the nature of the truth, like the Backfire Effect, may also turn out not to be true:
> It may be that the internet does not divide us, that facts donβt make us dumber than we were before, and that debunking doesnβt really lead to further bunk.
> In fact, it may be time that we gave up on the truth-y notion that weβre living in a post-truth age. In fact, it may be time that we debunked the whole idea.
@VictorVenema Both the authors of all these papers and the journalists that report on them seem to have a strong affection for the irony that allows them to say things like βthe best evidence against our paper is that it keeps getting rejectedβ. π
The claim at the end that a paper on the backfire effect was hard to publish because scientists reject new information does not sound too credible in my ears, however. Stephan Lewandowsky already told me years ago that the backfire effect was not something to worry about, that if it happens it would be in cases where people do not process the information actively.
So maybe the paper was just not that good or that new.