Conversation
Notices
-
The #Afghanistan situation reminds me of #Vietnam in #1975
-
idk, the lands of what are now Afghanistan have traded hands many times over the millennia. I'd be shocked it China, India, or Pakistan didn't try to encroach on that territory in the near future.
-
China has a long history of radical swings, largely based on Emperors. I'm not sure we have enough data to say if that has continued with CCP leaders, but when Xi Jinping steps down for whatever reason, I'd guess all bets are off.
-
wouldn't be surprised if there's a revolt in the west of the country, but I don't think we'll see Roman-style civil war.
A lot of that land in the west is disputed. The most likely scenario for Chinese involvement would be a Crimea-type seizure of the Wakhan Corridor Nature Refuge. Taking something like Tajikistan, or parts of it along with that would produce fewer headlines internationally.
If China cares about its west, then taking Issyk Kul would be strategic, but that would be a pretty big shift in priorities.
-
@musicman @simsa04 I'm nowhere near up to date on the situations in Central Asia, but I don't see Mr Putin allowing one of the nations that were in the former USSR fall completely under the control of either China or USA. It just doesn't seem like his style.
Maybe they'd agree to split Tajikistan, if he doesn't immediately think about Poland in World War II and the Nazi invasion of Russia that followed.
-
Issyk Kul is bigger, but Karakul Lake is closer to China and much closer to disputed territories.
The disputed territories in the west are already domestic and foreign issues.
I highly doubt China is going to take Kabul, but if you look at a map of Afghanistan, you'll see why the Wakhan corridor shouldn't likely be a hard get. China's west needs water. That part of Afghanistan has water. The unanswerable question tho is...will Beijing ever care?