Questions about the potential for various animal-crossover viruses to inflict deadly epidemics on humans. Lists #MERS-CoV as an example of how dangerous the #coronavirus family can be.
"The mortality rate of COVID-19 is significantly higher than previous estimates, world health officials said. Globally, about 3.4% of confirmed patients have died, said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization. In comparison, the seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected. The WHO officials said last week that the mortality rate of COVID-19 can differ, ranging from 0.7% to up to 4%, depending on the quality of the health-care system where it's treated. Early in the outbreak, scientists had concluded the death rate was around 2.3%. —Lovelace, Higgins-Dunn"
@strypey From what I've seen, the distinguishing feature of the #COVID-19 outbreak versus other #coronavirus outbreaks ( #SARS, #MERS ) is its transmissibility by people that are asymptomatic & pre-symptomatic. I'd also guess that the fatality rate is lower than what we think, because mild infections ==> no medical involvement.
Me: As @mangeurdenuage points out [1], banning large gatherings does nothing. They need to just tell people to stay home if at all possible.
The third link tells about something that @simsa03 and @geniusmusing and myself were discussing recently: the possible impact of #COVID-19 on campaigns and elections.
------------------------ 9:52 pm: France bans gatherings of more than 5,000 people
France's health minister has said that gatherings of more than 5,000 people, in a confined space, will be banned. This comes as the country's number of confirmed cases rose to 73 on Saturday. [2]
6:20 pm: Coronavirus could turn the 2020 presidential campaign upside down
Should the virus continue to spread, it may become impossible for the Democratic presidential campaigns to avoid changing their event schedules. As companies cancel events and limit travel in the name of caution, candidates are taking a risk by carrying on as normal.
"I think we'll see, pretty soon, decisions by the campaigns to limit rope line and scale back events to small-town halls and use technology like streaming to reach voters," said Scott Gottlieb, former head of the Food and Drug Administration under Trump.
"Even if the risk doesn't merit these steps right now, it's important they consider the examples they set." -- Hirsch [3]
> Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told the U.S. Congress on Thursday that his agency is aggressively evaluating how long coronavirus can survive and be infectious on surfaces. "On copper and steel its pretty typical, it's pretty much about 2 hours," Redfield said at a House of Representatives hearing on the government response to the fast-spreading virus. "But I will say on other surfaces — cardboard or plastic — it's longer, and so we are looking at this." He said infections contracted from surfaces rather than through the air could have contributed to the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. —Reuters
7:10 pm: Iran's health ministry confirms 245 coronavirus cases; death toll at 26
Iran's health ministry has confirmed 106 additional cases of the coronavirus in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of infections up to 245.
Iran's death toll as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak has also been raised to 26, Kianoush Jahanpour, a spokesperson for the Islamic Republic's health ministry, said Thursday.
Iran is at the epicenter of the outbreak in the Middle East, having recorded the highest number of coronavirus fatalities outside China.
Health authorities from Afghanistan, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates have all reported cases of the coronavirus that stemmed from Iran.
Earlier on Thursday, Saudi Arabia announced it would temporarily suspend the entry of foreigners for pilgrimage and tourism purposes. (See 1:57 p.m. update). — Sam Meredith
Me: I realize that they have a lot of unreported, undiagnosed cases, but Iran's reporting over 10% fatality rate. That's far beyond what anywhere else is reporting.
Human trials testing a potential vaccine for the COVID-19 coronavirus are expected to begin in six weeks, U.S. health officials announced Tuesday. "We are on time at least and maybe even a little bit better," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, an agency within the Department of Health and Human Services, told reporters at a press conference. "Hopefully, no further glitches." The White House reportedly asked Congress on Monday for $1.25 billion in additional funding to bolster its coronavirus response, including money to develop a vaccine and therapeutics to treat the virus. The National Institutes of Health has been working with biotech company Moderna to develop a vaccine using the current strain of the coronavirus. —Lovelace 3:49 pm: US health officials say coronavirus will likely cause a global pandemic
The coronavirus outbreak that's shuttered commerce across China will likely become a global pandemic, a top U.S. health official said, adding that it's just a matter of time before the outbreak starts spreading in the U.S. "Current global circumstances suggest it's likely this virus will cause a pandemic," Anne Schuchat, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told reporters at a news briefing. "It's not so much a question of if this will happen any more, but rather more a question of when this will happen and how many people in this country will become infected and how many of those will develop severe or more complicated disease," she added. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar added: "We can't hermetically seal off the United States." Azar confirmed four new cases of the virus from repatriated cruise ship passengers, bringing the total in the U.S. to 57. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/coronavirus-latest-updates.html [cnbc]
4:07 pm: Virus cases in China have plateaued, but the exact timing of peak is unclear
COVID-19 cases in China appears to have plateaued, according to data from both WHO and outside researchers tracking the disease. The exact timing of when cases peaked, however, is unclear. WHO said earlier in the day that cases in China peaked and plateaued between Jan. 23 and Feb. 2. But WHO's data appears to show that cases leveled off sometime the week of Feb. 14. The reason for the apparent discrepancy could be because China changed the way it classifies cases three times, said Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist and professor at the University of Toronto. "It's hard to look at the data and derive definitive conclusions, given the definition of cases has been changed several times," he said. "Whether or not it peaked at that time or another time, the key point is that it does appear to be peaking and plateauing now." — Lovelace
China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism has warned citizens against traveling to the U.S., saying Chinese tourists had repeatedly been treated "unfairly" stateside.
In an online statement published Monday, the ministry urged citizens to raise their awareness due to the U.S. security situation and "excessive" prevention measures.
The White House was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC on Monday.
China had urged its citizens against traveling to the U.S. in June 2019, at a time of heightened trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. — Meredith
President Donald Trump on Sunday repeated his belief that Chinese Premier Xi Jinping is doing a "good job" combating the fast-spreading coronavirus and that Xi will "solve" the problem. He added that the virus is "under control" in the U.S.
There were 35 confirmed cases of the virus in the U.S. as of Sunday morning.
The number of coronavirus cases tripled in South Korea on Saturday, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, with the number of confirmed cases in the country surging to 433 from 156 over a 24-hour period. The surge in cases adds to fears among health officials that the virus, which has spread to 28 countries, could turn into a global pandemic.
More than half of the cases in South Korea are connected to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, and over a thousand members have reported potential symptoms of the virus. The area surrounding the Christian sect's church in Daegu, a major city in South Korea, has become empty as businesses there shutter. 12:20 pm: WHO fears spread of virus to countries in Africa
World Health Organization (WHO) Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus met with African officials from Geneva on Saturday morning to urge them to prepare for a potential spread of the coronavirus across Africa.
Just one case has been confirmed on the continent, but health officials fear the increasing global spread of the virus, especially to countries with less developed health-care systems.
WHO says it has shipped more than 30,000 sets of personal protective equipment to six countries in Africa, and is set to ship 60,000 more sets to 19 countries in upcoming weeks. It has also provided online training courses to 11,000 African health workers, as well as advice to countries on how to conduct screening, testing and treatment.
"We're not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet, but it's very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen," Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call. "Our goal continues to be slowing the introduction of the virus into the U.S. This buys us more time to prepare communities for more cases and possibly sustained spread."
Messonnier said the CDC is working with state and local health departments "to ready our public health workforce to respond to local cases and the possibility this outbreak could become a pandemic." The CDC is collaborating with supply chain partners, hospitals, pharmacies and manufacturers to understand what medical supplies are needed, she said.
"This will help CDC understand when we may need to take more aggressive measures to ensure that health-care workers on the front lines have access to the supplies that they need," she said. "We are reviewing all of our pandemic materials and adapting them to COVID-19."
Messonnier pointed to China, where schools and businesses have been shuttered for weeks to contain the outbreak there, saying the U.S. may eventually need to do the same.
"The day may come where we may need to implement such measures in this country," she said.
The CDC is changing the way it categorizes confirmed cases in the U.S. to separate out people who've been repatriated to the country with the virus from China and from a cruise ship that was quarantined off the coast of Japan, she said. As of Friday morning, the CDC had confirmed 13 infections that were transmitted on U.S. soil and 21 cases that were brought into the country, she said.
The U.S. evacuated 329 Americans this week from the Diamond Princess ship, which was quarantined in the port of Yokohama, Japan, after an outbreak emerged onboard earlier this month. Despite the quarantine, which kept passengers confined to their cabins, the virus infected more than 600 passengers and crew, including some Americans who are being treated in Japan, Messonnier said.
"There are several Americans with COVID-19 who are hospitalized in Japan and who are seriously ill," she said.
Of the 329 Americans brought back from Japan, Messonnier said 18 of them tested positive for COVID-19. She said it's possible that some of those patients did not test positive before boarding the evacuation flights in Japan but that they were "already incubating the disease."
Earlier in the day, World Health Organization officials said they were concerned with the virus outbreak in Iran, where local health officials have confirmed 18 new cases and 4 deaths in just two days.
While a majority of cases are in China, the CDC has been working with the health-care sector to prepare for the virus to "take a foothold in the U.S.," Messonnier told reporters Feb. 12.
South Korea's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has confirmed another 31 new cases, bringing the total number of people infected to 82.
One case was identified in the capital of Seoul, the rest were in the city of Daegu and the Gyengbuk province, KCDC said. — Joanna Tan
7:58 am: Hubei reports an additional 108 deaths bringing total fatalities in province to 2,029
Hubei's health authorities reported there were 108 additional fatalities on Feb. 19, bringing the total number of people who died in the province to 2,029.
The Hubei Provincial Health Committee reported there were 349 new cases on Feb. 19 — down from 1,693 newly confirmed cases the day before. The commission stated that 349 was the final tally after deducting 279 cases from 10 Hubei cities. According to Reuters, the number of new cases reported daily is a net figure including such deductions. That means the number of new cases on Wednesday stood at 628, when the deductions were removed.
The virus — believed to have first emerged from Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province — has killed more than 2,000 people so far. Less than 10 people outside the mainland have died from the virus. — Joanna Tan
2:41 pm: CDC issues travel guidelines for Hong Kong after second coronavirus-related death
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued new guidelines on Wednesday for American travelers to Hong Kong after the city reported its second death from the new coronavirus. Travelers to Hong Kong should avoid contact with sick people, the CDC said, and regularly wash their hands. It is the CDC's lowest-level travel warning, but it is the first coronavirus-related travel notice issued by the U.S. government for a territory beyond mainland China. — Feuer
German investor confidence has sharply deteriorated amid intensifying fears that China's coronavirus outbreak will significantly hamper world trade, according to a new survey.
The ZEW Research Institute said Tuesday that its monthly survey showed economic sentiment fell to 8.7 in February, down from 26.7 in January. Analysts had anticipated a reading of 21.5 this month.
"The feared negative effects of the Coronavirus epidemic in China on world trade have been causing a considerable decline of the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany," ZEW President Achim Wambach said in a statement.
"Expectations regarding the development of the export-intensive sectors of the economy have dropped particularly sharply." — Meredith.
3:32 pm: Chinese study suggests people ages 60 and older are most at risk
The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention released a study on Monday that looked in depth at the coronavirus epidemic on the mainland that has infected more than 72,000 and killed over 1,800.
The report examined 72,314 unique patient records, including 44,672 confirmed cases as of Feb. 11.
It found around 81% of the confirmed cases were said to be mild, 13.8% were severe and 4.7% were critical while information on the rest was missing.
It also suggested that people ages 60 and above were most at risk, based off the reported case fatality rate — calculated by dividing the total number of deaths by the total number of cases. Of the cases examined, about 14.8% of people 80 and older died.
The overall case fatality rate in the study was 2.3%. The study also noted that nearly half (49%) of the people who were in critical condition have died.
1:53 pm: Director of hospital in Wuhan dies from virus
The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission confirmed Liu Zhiming, the director of Wuchang Hospital in Wuhan, died Tuesday morning.
According to an online report from state news broadcaster CCTV, medical staff sent from Beijing Xiehe Hospital said Liu died of the new coronavirus at 10:30 a.m. after an all-out rescue effort failed.
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission later said Liu died at 10:54 a.m. and that he was 51 years old.
Nearly two weeks ago, doctor Li Wenliang, who was initially reprimanded by local authorities for his early warnings about the virus, also died from the new coronavirus. — Cheng
Underlying, existing illnesses such as cardiovascular disease increased the chance of fatality, the report found.
China has dispatched more than 25,000 health workers to help Hubei as of Feb. 14, as the central Chinese province seeks to contain the spread of the new coronavirus, state-owned Xinhua reported, citing a senior official at the National Health Commission.
"The total number of medical workers has far exceeded that for rescue in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and we did it at a much faster speed," Wang Hesheng, deputy head of the commission, reportedly said. He was referring to a magnitude 8 earthquake in May 2008 that hit southwest China's Sichuan Province, that killed an estimated 70,000 to 80,000 people.
Wang said that of the 25,633 medical workers sent to Hubei, about 20,000 are now working in Wuhan city — where the virus is thought to have first emerged. The official said that number does not include medical staff sent by the military, according to Xinhua. -- https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/16/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-death-toll-rises.html [cnbc]
Twenty-five thousand more medical workers flowing into the center of the #COVID-19 / #2019-nCoV / Wuhan #coronavirus outbreak ... I'm really hoping they get a handle on this soon.