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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/
> In the U.S., there have been 81,507 deaths as of May 12.3 For a fatality rate of 0.1 percent, the same as the seasonal flu, we’d have to find out that 81.5 million Americans, or nearly a quarter of the U.S. population, had already had COVID-19. But based on early serological surveys, the World Health Organization says it’s likely that only about 2 to 3 percent of the population has been exposed so far.
> Some serological surveys have reported wildly different estimates of how many people may be immune. A recent survey in California, for example, found that something like 2 to 4 percent of the population had antibodies, while studies in Germany and Massachusetts found antibodies in 15 to 30 percent of those tested.
(via The Forest)